the only easy day was yesterday

Friday, December 14, 2007

Runnin' It up

Decision Theory

decision theory starts with a story. youre going to a party. either chicken or beef will be served. you have to bring a bottle of wine, red or white. i have no idea which one goes better with which, but its not al that important we'll go with that red goes with chicken and the converse. so if you bring red, and chicken is served everyone is ecstatic, if you bring red and beef is served everyone is sorta bummed. if you bring white and chicken is served everyone is happy, and if you bring white and beef is served everyone is really bummed. what do you choose? red.

the idea is that you clearly choose very good/sorta bad over goo/very bad.

yes, quite intuitive. now...

Pascal's Wager

Pascal sayeth: if you believe in God, and God exists, you're good, if you believe in God and God doesn't exist, you waste your sundays. if you don't believe in God, and he exists, you are really screwed, if you don't believe in God and he doesn't exist, you got to live a life of sex, drugs, etc.


i. you believe, and god exists: you go to heaven, eternal bliss, supreme excellentness believe, and god does not exist: you waste your sundays, you lived a pious life for nothing, but you did live it believing in something and sticking to it, so it's not that bad
iii. you don't believe, and god exists; you're fucked, you're going to hell and you're gonna be miserable forever
iv. you don't believe, and god doesnt exist: you got to live a life of bodily pleasures, which really proves not to be that great in the end...

so, you have to believe in god, and you lower your chances of being really miserable, and raise your chances of being supremely happy

but we must consider something. belief. belief is an emotional state. one cannot force belief, one can go through life and say and ppray and go to chruch and still not feel that belief. what oes pascal mean by believe? does god know? does god need us to feel it for us to go to heaven? this wager rests on shaky terms, and cannot be taken too seriously.

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